Episode 27: How to Win Every Board Game With the Gambler's Fallacy

Imagine you’re playing a board game with your friends that involves rolling a die. So far, your friend has rolled the die a dozen times and it has not yielded a six yet. They claim, “One sixth of die rolls are a six, so I’m definitely due to roll a six or two soon!” Are they right?

 

In less than four minutes, discover one of the biggest mistakes we make on probability.